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Introduction
Hi all, welcome back to this week’s market analysis for January 25th, 2026. The cryptocurrency market has shown bearish tendencies this week, with major assets testing key supports amid low weekend volume and weakening price structures. This report compares this week’s performance to last week’s predictions, updates key market metrics, and provides actionable trading insights for TOTAL, TOTAL3, BTC.D, BTC, ETH, and SOL, alongside relevant macro-economic events.
Key Takeaways
- Total Market Cap (TOTAL): Trading at $2.95T, testing critical support with bearish structure on both high and low timeframes.
- Altcoin Market (TOTAL3): Ranging between $910B and $830B, showing bearish pressure as it approaches range lows.
- Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D): Increased to 59.69%, trending upward since January 7th, indicating altcoin weakness.
- Bitcoin (BTC): Bearish on all timeframes, testing support at $88K with failed breakouts and low upside momentum.
- Ethereum (ETH): In a high timeframe range since late November 2025, trading at lower end with bearish bias.
- Solana (SOL): Similar high timeframe range structure, approaching lower support with potential breakdown.
- Macro Events: FOMC rate decision (Jan 28), Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 29), PPI m/m (Jan 30).
- Overall Expectation: Bearish bias persists with likely breakdowns; watch for support failures and macro catalysts.
TOTAL Market Cap Analysis
TOTAL market cap overall has been bearish both on the low timeframes and high timeframes. Support is currently being tested at 2.95T. Resistance is up at 3.05T. Price action is signaling weakening market structure across the board. The past 2 days have been weekend so low volume is expected then. Current situation seems likely that support gets broken and new lows get tested. There was a wick down that hasn’t been sweeped on January 21st. Likely we see this level again next week.
Comparison to Last Week: There was no report the last week so I will start comparisons when the reports are released in order again.
Trading Insight:
- Bullish Case: Support holds and low timeframes signal upward momentum (high highs higher lows). Price would need to break above 3.05T and stay above it. Or price sweeps the wick lows of January 21st and moves back in the range.
- Bearish Case: The more likely case price melts through support and continues downward momentum. New lows, new lower highs.
TOTAL3 (Altcoin Market Cap) Analysis
TOTAL3 (market cap excl. BTC and ETH) has been ranging for a while now. Still shows ranging on the high timeframes with a large range between 910B and 830B.
It’s moving back to the lows of the range again. Just like TOTAL showing bearish pressure again. So the case here stays the same as TOTAL bearish breakdown more likely.
This would mean a move back towards 810B - 800B. These were previous lows in December.
Comparison to Last Week: There was no report the last week so I will start comparisons when the reports are released in order again.
Trading Insight:
- Bullish Case: Support holds at range lows, volume increases on upside, and price forms higher highs and higher lows toward 910B.
- Bearish Case: Breakdown below 830B with increasing volume, confirming move to 810B-800B lows.
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) Analysis
Now over to Bitcoin dominance. Sitting at 59.69% right now. It has been trending up since January 7th showing increasing weakness in altcoin markets. Further confirmed with falling TOTAL3 marketcap.
Comparison to Last Week: There was no report the last week so I will start comparisons when the reports are released in order again.
Trading Insight:
- Bullish Case for Altcoins: Dominance falls below 59.5% again and creates a bearish structure lower lows lower highs
- Bearish Case for Altcoins: Continued upside movement and slow grinding towards 60+%
Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis
BTC is bearish on both high timeframes and low timeframes. Increased weakness in price failed breakouts low upside momentum. Currently testing lower support again. Higher resistance sits at 91.1K. It failed to breakout and hold that resistance zone with strong selling pressure.
As of now it follows the bearish case of the overall market seeing it more likely we got a new move down.
Comparison to Last Week: There was no report the last week so I will start comparisons when the reports are released in order again.
Trading Insight:
- Bullish Case: Increased upside momentum and buying pressure moving BTC back to resistance and breaking above it.
- Bearish Case (most likely): More likely it breaks 88K and moves towards lower 80K levels (86K - 84K)
- Strategy: Watch for breakdowns to catch short trades or short on weak upside movements. Long if prices take up speed and show strength and breaks resistance.
Ethereum (ETH) Analysis
ETH has been in a high timeframe range since end november 2025 failing to make any meaningful upside strength. It is trading back at the lower end of the range again with low upside movement.
Just like the overall market bearish structure make it likely we break down and move towards new lows.
Comparison to Last Week: There was no report the last week so I will start comparisons when the reports are released in order again.
Trading Insight:
- Bullish Case: Price picks up momentum and moves back up and stays above 3K
- Bearish Case (most likely): Price breaks and falls towards 2.7 - 2.6K
- Strategy: Watch for breakdowns to catch short trades or short on weak upside movements. Long if prices take up speed and show strength and breaks resistance.
Solana (SOL) Analysis
Lastly SOL has a similar structure as ETH large high timeframe range. Trading at the lower end of the range. So breakdowns here are likely. This would target the 120 - 110 zone.
High timeframe resistance is sitting at 130 support at 125.
Comparison to Last Week: There was no report the last week so I will start comparisons when the reports are released in order again.
Trading Insight:
- Bullish Case: Price picks up momentum and moves back up and stays above 130
- Bearish Case: Price breaks and falls towards 120 - 110
- Strategy: Watch for breakdowns to catch short trades or short on weak upside movements. Long if prices take up speed and show strength and breaks resistance.
Macro-Economic Events This Week
⚠️ Critical Release
💼 FOMC / Rate decision (January 28th)
Likely rates stay unchanged so no catalyst for upward movement further enforcing the bearish strength
💼 Initial Jobless Claims (29th January)
Weaker than expected data could provide some relief to risk assets, while stronger numbers might add selling pressure in a bearish environment.
💼 PPI m/m (30th January)
Lower inflation readings could signal potential rate cuts later, supporting a bounce; higher could reinforce bearish sentiment.
Overall Expectation
Market Outlook
Bearish structure dominates with weakening supports and low momentum; breakdowns likely unless macro data surprises positively.
✓ Bearish structure
- Weakening supports across majors
- Failed upside attempts
- Increasing BTC dominance
⚠️ Risks Identified
- Support breakdowns
- Hawkish macro data
- Low volume wicks
💡 Opportunities
- Short on breakdowns
- Bounces on weak data
- Range trades in alts
Conclusion
Key Takeaways & Action Items
📍 Support Levels Testing
$2.95T (TOTAL), $830B (TOTAL3), $88K (BTC) - All under pressure with bearish bias.
⚠️ Macro Impact
FOMC, Jobless Claims, and PPI could dictate short-term moves; unchanged rates reinforce downside.
💰 Strategy Forward
Position for shorts on breakdowns; monitor macro for potential relief rallies. Use tight stops.
Bearish momentum building; discipline and risk management key in volatile conditions.
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